Brexit is a Pig in a Poke

Imagine your boss sends you to a sealed-bids auction. Upon arrival you realise you have no idea how much money she wants you to spend, what she wants you to buy, or what the end game is. Obviously you'd put bids on every single item in the auction and hope for the best. Right?

That's the position into which the British public have put Theresa May. You go to that auction, Ms May! You buy that pig in a poke, whatever the cost! Hang on, you didn't buy the wrong pig in a poke, did you? Naughty Theresa!

The argument for invoking Article 50 soon is that negotiations cannot begin until it has been triggered.

But hang on... Are we really ready to begin negotiations?

Surely the first and most important rule in the art of negotiating is to know your own objective. What do you want? What will you accept? You don't go to that auction until you know which item you're there to buy, how badly you want it, and how much you're willing to pay.

So, what do we want? 

Please, do not say, 'out of the EU'. There are several different & contradictory flavours  of Brexit; each has its supporters. 

Some would say that access to the single market outweighs the desire for reduced immigration; others would say the reverse. Some would say we should sever all economic ties to the EU and go straight to WTO rules; others say that's economic and political suicide.

What we as a country need from our government now is for it to research and investigate several viable options. This does not mean negotiating with the EU. This is the pre-negotiation phase. This involves Ms May tasking Mr Davis and his ministry with putting together a short list of Brexit options. These should be presented as deals we think we could actually negotiate along with expert analysis on the implications (to education, employment, taxes, national politics, socioeconomic conditions in the UK, the global financial and political situation, etc.)

In simple terms, these options should include:

1. Something akin to the Norway or Switzerland model
2. Something along the lines of the Canada or Turkey model
3. Moving straight to WTO rules 
4. Remaining in the EU 

This short list must then be set before parliament for them to decide. Then and only then — when we know what we are negotiating for — will we be ready to trigger Article 50.

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Response from Nicola Sturgeon's office

Brilliant response from Nicola Sturgeon's office to my letter. Sounds like they just might be open to #MoreUnited after all. Well, here's hoping...

---------- Forwarded message ----------
From: <CorrespondenceUnit@gov.scot>
Date: 1 August 2016 at 11:45
Subject: RE: Thanks and Pleas

Thank you for your correspondence following the EU Referendum.

Scotland has delivered a strong, unequivocal vote to remain in the EU with all local authority areas in Scotland voting to remain in the EU and the Scottish Government welcomes that outcome. The Scottish Government firmly believes that EU membership delivers many social, economic and cultural benefits for individuals, businesses and communities across Scotland. We also welcome those EU nationals who have chosen to make Scotland their home and who make an important and valuable contribution to our economy and society.

Given the support in Scotland for remaining in the European Union, the Scottish Government is exploring all options to secure Scotland's interests, and to protect its relationship with the EU and our place in the single market.

In ensuring we consider all options, the First Minister has said that independence has to be considered, however the starting point of our discussions is to protect our place in Europe.  Any decision on a further referendum will be for the Scottish Parliament to take having considered all the options for Scotland's future relationship with the EU.

The Government's approach has been supported by the Scottish Parliament and the First Minister has already begun discussions with the UK Government, other devolved administrations, EU institutions and other member states.

The Scottish Government has also made it clear to the UK Government that we should be consulted before the UK Government begins the process of seeking to negotiate a withdrawal from the EU, and that we should be fully and directly involved in any negotiations in order to ensure Scotland's interests are properly represented.

However it is important to be clear that at this time, the UK remains a member of the EU and the ability to trade with the EU, and the rights of EU citizens, remain unaffected at present.

If you would like any further information on the steps being taken by the Scottish Government to protect Scotland's  relationship with, and place in, the EU, you can find this online at www.gov.scot/Topics/International/Europe/eu-referendum

Thanks again for taking the time to get in touch.

 

Fiona Hyslop

Cabinet Secretary for Culture, Tourism and External Affairs

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You Should be Angry

Did you vote Remain? You should be angry.

Were you unable to vote because of your age, citizenship, or residency? You should be angry.

Did you choose not to vote because you felt you didn't have enough data to make an informed decision? You should be angry.

Did you vote Leave? Do you now regret it? You should be angry.

Did you vote vote Leave? Do you still believe it's the right thing? I think you're wrong, but you too should be angry.

Are you Theresa May? Did David Cameron and the Eton old boys run off and leave you holding the bag full of their steaming turd? You should be angriest of all.

For years Nigel Farage and his ilk have been telling us to blame the EU for our problems. The government encouraged them. Frankly, David Cameron was probably thrilled with them. It was like winning the political lottery.

Can't get an appointment to see your GP? Blame the invading hordes of EU migrants (never mind it's actually due disgraceful underfunding and mismanagement by the Tories). Having to wait at the local A&E? Kids can't get a place in the school you wanted to send them to? On a mile-long wait list for social housing? Can't get welfare or can't get by on what they give you when you finally do?  Ditto. Ditto. Ditto. Ditto. Can't smoke in the pub? Must be the EU's fault (it's not).

And yet, as we all discovered on the 24th of June, neither the government nor the Leave campaign actually had a plan. Yes, yes, fine — Brexit means Brexit. But what does Brexit actually mean?

That no one had a Brexit plan suggests they did not take it seriously. This was a game of oneupmanship between entitled trust-fund toffs.

There was no plan because this was never real to them. Boris described the £275,000 a year he was paid to write a column for the Telegraph as chicken feed. That's £2,292 per hour according to him. Chicken feed. How rich is David Cameron. No one knows because he hides his money from his own government to avoid paying taxes. Both were born into money. Neither has to work a day in his life ever again if he chooses.

They have dropped us all into the toilet for a laugh.

And so we should be angry. Both Leavers and Remainers alike should be angry. We should not wallow in our anger, nor should we waste it on each other. Our anger should be our impetus to act. It should spur us into doing something.

Talk to people. Engage one another in passionate — yet respectful — debate.

Write. Blog, tweet, post to Facebook. Write to your MP, your MEP, the leaders of political parties, your local councillors (they may have the ear of of your MP or be otherwise well connected).

Plan events. Volunteer at events. Attend events.

Join a political party. Share your views with them. Listen to the views of other members. Attend meetings.

Join #MoreUnited.

Donate money if you've got any. Donate your time if you have that. Sign petitions — lots of them. Wear badges. Wear safety pins. Wear t-shirts with slogans.

Above all, educate yourself. Research the implications of Brexit. Research the fallout. Read articles by people you agree with. Read articles by intelligent, well-informed people with whom you disagree passionately. Read articles you don't understand. Ask questions. Talk to people who hold different viewpoints, come from different cultures, come from different socioeconomic backgrounds, are of a different religion.

We can come back from this. We can recover. We can move forward. But only if we don't back down. Only if we learn from our mistakes. Only if we don't keep calm and carry on.

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Saving Labour vs Saving the UK

Hi Vicky,

I voted for you in 2015. I believed then that you would be an excellent MP. Since then, you've shown yourself more than worthy of the faith I (along with thousands of other Lewisham-Deptford residents) put in you. You are an excellent MP. 

I also felt comfortable voting for you because I believed Ed Milliband would have been a good Prime Minister. I continue to believe that as well.

Because of all the above, it is with regret that I tell you no today. 

I'm not interested in Saving Labour because it is no longer worth saving. 

You know me; you know how much I love my dogs. I have sat with vets on several occasions while they have euthanised one of my dogs. It's a horrible heart-breaking, gut-wrenching experience. We do it, because it is a mercy to the animal.

Today it is your own beloved Labour Party that needs to be euthanised. There is a cancer at its core. 

The country doesn't need to prolong the party's torment as it slowly dies on the world stage while all around us burns.

It's too late. Owen Smith isn't the candidate to topple Corbyn's regime. He isn't the right candidate to lead the Labour Party to rise up out of the ashes of its own demise.

Instead I ask YOU to join me in supporting a new cross-party movement for progressive liberalism. Read more about it here: http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jul/19/liberals-celebrities-and-eu-supporters-set-up-progressive-movement.

It may be too late to save the Labour Party that was, but it's not too late to save the UK.

Thank you for everything. I hope you'll give this some thought.

Regards,

British by Choice

Lewisham-Deptford 

London

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The Lies of the Tories

I came across someone this morning spouting David Davis's lies.

"I thought this was a group devoted to setting up trade deals within Europe. I voted leave as I think our little island nation should become autonomous again and YES also because there is no room at the inn and we cannot possibly feed water and clothe the world."

This is my response to that person and to anyone else who says similar.

They lied to you.

David Davis said he would achieve trade deals with individual EU member states, bypassing EU bureaucracy. He can't. It doesn't work that way. We will have one trade deal with the EU and it will need to be agreed by all 28 interested parties. We will also need to have our own trade deals with all other potential trading partners.

Each and every one of these deals will take years to achieve. Each one of them will require hundreds of thousands of person-hours and cost many millions of pounds to achieve.

In the meantime our economy will lose TRILLIONS OF POUNDS. We will do ourselves irreparable damage on every level of our society.

We've been had.

Furthermore, we are not "full". This is another Tory lie. They have underfunded our NHS, our schools, our universities, our local councils, and a thousand other things. They've taken money away from us and told us it was immigrants who were to blame.

It's all lies.

Immigrants pay far more into the system than we take out of it. We also spend money within the local economy, creating jobs and spreading wealth. Tory austerity, on the other hand, has created a nation in which the basic human rights of the poorest citizens are being systematically violated.

David Cameron and his buddies along with the Leave campaigners should be prosecuted for the damage they've done to this country.

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Letter template about Trident (for MP)

Dear [Your MP's name],

It shouldn't need saying in this day and age, but sadly it does. Please vote against replacing Trident. It's dangerous, we don't need it, and we can't afford it.

Thank you.

[Your full name]
[Your full address]

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LibDems Post-Referendum: What Next

Meeting of @LibDems tonight…

Vince Cable

Former minister for Business Innovation & Skills

"Wouldn't amaze me if tomorrow's news was that Theresa May was out and had handed reins over to Corbyn."
Described TM as best of a bad lot

She's going to have to explain what "Brexit means Brexit" actually means.
TM wasn't chosen by country, wasn't even chosen by her party, but by default. She must call an election.

It was very clear that Remain won the economic argument, but we lost the overall argument. We said there would be painful economic consequences. Anyone of any learning agreed.

We're very lucky that someone in this country was ready with a Plan B and that someone was Mark Carney.

We've only just begun to recover from the 2007/8 crisis.

As a result of Brexit, credit will become more difficult to obtain. 

The likelihood is that we will face a Brexit recession in the next year. This will be because people will lose confidence, they will have less to spend, and businesses will be unable to grow in the UK.

Recessions come and go. What makes this one different? We've used up our weapons. Western world now has lowest interest rates since the days of the Babylonians. They cannot go lower. 

As we hand the country over to the right they will be tempted to remove protections and safety nets — for workers' rights, for sustainability, for the environment.

We have a responsibility to provide a positive alternative and constructive solutions. And we can.

We've had a party crisis following the last election, but we've weathered it with more dignity and cohesiveness than Labour are dealing with theirs. We are fighting for the 48% of voters who voted to Remain.

Caroline Pidgeon

London assembly member

So many of us in the room have felt gutted after the last election, but we've felt it even more so on the 24th of June. We feel like our country is slipping away from us. 

We've seen horrific incidents of racism in the weeks since then. Disgusting xenophobic attacks.

I'm proud to be party of the only party that wholly fought for the UK to remain in the EU.

I've been horrified by the use of EU citizens resident in the UK as bargaining chips.

The new prime minister must deliver on the fantasy promises of the Leave campaign. People voted on the basis of the what they were promised with regard to cutting all we give to the EU and keeping all we get from them.

Already major companies have cut investment and announced plans to move thousands of jobs away from the UK. Virgin, Easyjet, Siemens, Morgan Stanley, etc.

The new PM has to deliver on Leave's glib optimism. If she can't, she must call a general election.

We must ensure our voices are heard. LibDems must stand up for Britain's place in the EU.

Kishwer Falkner

LibDem peer

Chair of foreign affairs from 2010-5. Too many wars and interventions.

Margaret Macmillan wrote an interesting piece in which she referred to the English Channel as our moat.

There is a real danger at the moment that the international cooperation is breaking down. 

Most countries are judged on 3 types of power: hard (military), soft (influence), and the ability to get things done.

The City of London is the global financial centre. This is predominantly due to geography and history. Brexit will have an impact on that. Half a million jobs are dependent on that sector. Back office jobs, all over the UK. Technology jobs. Regulatory jobs. Nobody in thinking about how dependent we are on those jobs.

The Norway option is the only option left to us that if we leave. It's the only one that works. 

Simon Hughes

Minister of state for justice until 2015

My late father lived to see Margaret Thatcher become leader of the Tory party. He wasn't happy about it, but told me we must always look on the bright side.

Living on an island, it's easy to forget how connected Europe is. We can get a train all the way to Moscow.

We failed to win the argument about immigration. People voted to Leave because they believed the lies that we were being inundated with. We failed to win the argument. 

Within days Cornwall, which voted to Leave said they wanted to be sure they would continue to receive the EU funding they've been getting. The leader of Labour Out (a German citizen) suddenly turned around and began arguing for eu citizens to be allowed to remain.

I think we will see Article 50 triggered and I think it will be done with parliamentary approval. There may be a different referendum to agree terms as negotiated.

Tories are more right now than they were under David Cameron, and they were further right then than they were in coalition with us.

We must continue to fight. Labour is in no shape to fight the progressive cause. We are the people who must fight the liberal cause.

Audience Questions

Q1. Seeing as we've had this vote and we disagree as dos Scotland, shouldn't we let them have another referendum about leaving the UK?

Answered by Lib Dem member of House of Lords, that old folks home that pretends to be another House.

Doesn't believe we should have a general election now, because we'd end up with a strong Tory govt with a UKIP opposition. But we must begin a cross-party fight back. We should be shouting from the rooftops about the consequences of Brexit.

Q2. In our first-past-the-post system, we do not end up with proportional representation. What can we do about that?

Simon Hughes: We've failed. All of us have failed to produce a feeling of belonging. Non-metropolitan England have wreaked vengeance on us for alienating them. We must speak to their needs. We must engage with them. This referendum was not about the EU, it was about London. We must build a proper alliance of progressives. We have an unelected House of Lords, and an unelected monarch.

Vince cable: Scotland presents us with an interesting conundrum

Q3. Alex from Harrow

If we are working together as progressives, should we support Angela Eagle as leader of Labour

Q5. Should we be working together across parties?

CP: I'm not sure whether we should or shouldn't support Angela Eagle, but what I do think is that we'll see Labour splitting. I also think some Conservatives will break away. We should absolutely work with them, whether as one party or as an alliance of parties, I don't know.

Q4. Sarah of Greenwich

Tim Farron said if there is a snap general election, we should campaign on a platform of remaining in the Eu, but if A50 has been triggered is that possible?

KF: We're not out until we're out. We can cancel A50 before it's in force.

Sarah: Unless we can be certain that we can — definitely, absolutely — cancel an A50 after it's been triggered, we can't promise that. What's to say Europe would accept that?

VC: I've been around the country speaking to business groups around the country. And business leaders overwhelmingly want to remain. Instead of worrying about the institutions, about which side of the line we land on, we must position ourselves to protect what is good and right about the EU.

SH: I think we won't have a general election called until the Autumn and I think A50 will be triggered before them. We must balance being the party that represents the 58% with NOT disrespecting the 52%.

KF: A general election is a fresh mandate. It is not undemocratic for a new govt to overturn decisions of a previous party.

Q from a doctor in the audience 

The NHS is in crisis. Scientific community is in crisis. We must do something about this.

VC: I was responsible for science budget in govt and we made sure that was funded. Universities will be very badly hit by this both in loss of funding from EU and in student bodies from EU. You cannot have tax cuts and increase spending at same time. Ms May will need to address this.

Q from audience member

I'm hearing a lot about progressive alliance. What does that look like?

Q from audience

Regretful I agree, we can't disregard the 52%. If there is a general election in the next few years, we can and must try to claw our way back from this.

KF: The EU will not be bending over backwards to make concessions to us. We're not playing nicely with them at the moment. Why would they play nicely with us? I wouldn't advocate us drawing red lines, but I would encourage our negotiators to think very carefully about our priorities.

SH: Think of the benefit to the EU if after two years, the negotiations are such that we decide to remain. That would be a grand success. We have to be clear about our own position, but we must be willing to engage with others. 

Q from Wendy from Westminster 

I came here tonight hoping to hear some optimistic news about Brexit, about us not leaving. I am deeply disappointed. This is not a fait accomplis. We do not have to do this. You've had one donation from me, unless you can provide more certainty, you won't get more.

Q from audience

I'm from Italy. I've lived here for 20 years. I woke up on 24/6 feeling unwelcome. We haven't talked about European values. I share the other woman's disappointment. Tonight has been all very polite. The time for polite is past. We need passion. 

SH: This referendum is not binding, it is advisory. I think parliament will vote to BEGIN the negotiation process. And I think it's the end of the negotiations that are more important. I am hopeful that what we will see is an outcome that will persuade people to stay.

CP: I agree with Wendy from Westminster. I hope we can halt this in its tracks.  There are many things about this that should have been done differently.

Audience member

I voted Leave. I'm not against immigration. I'm American. I voted to Leave because this government has let us down. We have banks that don't pay minimum wage. Every time the EU voted to increase protections to individuals, the UK government fought them on it. So my question is this: can the Lib Dems do better?

VC: A lot people voted to Leave for similar reasons you did. And if you're foolish enough to hold an unnecessary referendum, you'd better be sure you can win. David Cameron handed the marginalised communities of this country to blow him a great big raspberry, and they did.

SH: The areas with the largest Leave vote are the areas with the lowest rate of post-16 education. They are the communities with people who have been left behind by the economic recovery in the major metropolitan areas.

Audience member

I'm from Germany. What is your advice to other EU countries now. How should they react to what is happening here.

Audience member 

I work in video games. After the referendum, people feel very disenfranchised and are angered, but it's left them with an unwillingness to vote in future as they don't believe their voice will be heard.

Audience member 

I joked the LibDems last year because I was angry at how the LibDems was treated in the coalition. If also like to say that I'm an octogenarian and I voted to Remain.

CP: I think a lot of people punished us for the coalition, not thinking that we'd be virtually wiped out.

Audience member 

I'm from Blackpool, which was 70% Leave. I joined 2 weeks ago. I work in brand marketing. I think the LibDems have a branding issue.

CP: Our brand is damaged. You are absolutely right. I hope the gentleman here will get in touch with our marketing people, because we need help. 

VC: To close, I'd like to say we were the only party that was united. We've come out of this regaining some of the ground we lost last year. I hope that we maintain that momentum.

SH: We do have a branding problem. We had it at the last election. We said, 'please keep us in power. We will help temper the government.' But people don't vote for that.

Sent from my iPhone

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